Pete! Haven't seen you around! Happy New Year...
As for the mean bone, I guess my opinion was expressed too tartly?
It was just an opinion. Last time I checked, Lexington is in a free country and folks are free to book their mares wherever they like and pay whatever fees they want to pay. I agree that many, many of the first year horses are being way overpriced for their quality. Further, I predict that a lot of them will likely be banished before their second crop has a chance to touch the track. This new business model (cash in early and don't worry about the horse, we'll replace him with another new one before anyone finds out if he stinks) is getting more prevalent all the time.
First Samurai's fee announced ($40,000)
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Let me start off by saying I have a personal stake in First Samurai so ignore my comments if they seem a tad bias.
He was a colt who's race record is a little misleading because he was injured two starts before his last race. Due to some unfortunate circumstances that can only be attributed to a "troubled" partnership, the injuries were not found for some time.
His family is a little weak, but he's a very good looking horse with sufficient bone, scope, size, and commercial appeal to prove a very good bet at 40k.
The 300 apps in the first week of retirement is not far from the mark, although slightly exagerrated, although seeing the support, 40k is actually looking like a bargain.
And for the record, Bernie Sams is a GREAT friend to have in the bussiness for all you breeders... always truthful, straight forward, and always allowing you to voice your opinion/case on a breed to breed basis.
From the feedback we're getting, it seems that a lot of breeders are looking at First Sam as the non-Coolmore alternative to Giant's Causeway. In other words, the Sheik/Coolmore issue will (should) not affect his foals.
I will agree that this forum is very anti-Giant's Causeway, which is fine. He is absolutely over-priced, but so are 90% of stallions. With that said, he's getting some big horses and this was one of the best performing ones that called the US home.
The support has been amazing.
He was a colt who's race record is a little misleading because he was injured two starts before his last race. Due to some unfortunate circumstances that can only be attributed to a "troubled" partnership, the injuries were not found for some time.
His family is a little weak, but he's a very good looking horse with sufficient bone, scope, size, and commercial appeal to prove a very good bet at 40k.
The 300 apps in the first week of retirement is not far from the mark, although slightly exagerrated, although seeing the support, 40k is actually looking like a bargain.
And for the record, Bernie Sams is a GREAT friend to have in the bussiness for all you breeders... always truthful, straight forward, and always allowing you to voice your opinion/case on a breed to breed basis.
From the feedback we're getting, it seems that a lot of breeders are looking at First Sam as the non-Coolmore alternative to Giant's Causeway. In other words, the Sheik/Coolmore issue will (should) not affect his foals.
I will agree that this forum is very anti-Giant's Causeway, which is fine. He is absolutely over-priced, but so are 90% of stallions. With that said, he's getting some big horses and this was one of the best performing ones that called the US home.
The support has been amazing.
Madeyln your funny
I think your postings are classic, you sarcastic and I love it, but I can see how you rub people the wrong way, you know all your Hello!! etc....
ASB, first, as can be noted from a prior post, Giant's Causeway has made a believer out of me. His raw numbers, stats, and the quality foals he has been producing all indicate he is the real deal. His biggest downfall is his ownership, management, and to some, possibly his sire.
However, I think if you look at those most critical of GC, you won't find a horse owner or breeder amoung them. Of course, they will cry "foul" and claim they don't have to be an owner or breeder to have an opinion, which is absolutely true, however they also don't have a financial interest in making sure their opinion is right.
Whether we like the way Ashford has handled GC's fee and book or not, apparently enough people with enough money believe in him to make sure his book is full... which it is. That tells me all I need to know. It is hard for us regular folks to fathom being able to play the game at that level, which, I suppose, for some causes ill-will.
Of course, much of the same arguments against GC can be leveled against Storm Cat himself. One can include the fact that Overbrook has done an absolutely horrible job in managing their other stallions.
As for First Samurai... if he got a full book... and his book filled with PAYING customers, then that is all I need to know about what the market thinks of him... my opinion matters little. I do have a couple problems with him, namely Giant's Causeway has proven he can get runners, however he is a completely unknown commodity when it comes to sires. The female family is somewhat suspect, and Pete hammered home my feelings toward the Broodmare sire. Simply, Secretariat-broodmare sire of sires... Dixieland Band-errr, not so much.
I did think First Sam was a pretty special racehorse, and I understand how partnerships and injuries often can negatively impact a horse, however if I had to sit down and do an analysis and try to come up with a comparable, I would have to look at Vindication. Now, I will admit, I have not seen First Sam, but I have seen Vindication and he looks like a stallion. In addition, Vindication comes from a sire who has produced a couple useful stallions. Neither has a female family to write home about, (of course neither did Danzig...). Vindication does stand at a farm who does a better job of "spin" and marketing than most others... Claiborne, is still behind in this respect (and some would say, they are failing).
Based on such a comparison, and looking at today's market, if Vindication has been as overwhelmingly popular as he has been, it is hard to argue that First Sam will not, at minimum, hold his own... as long as his foals "look" the part.
As far as Claiborne... I love the farm, I think the Hancock's and the Koch's are absolutely wonderful people... I am fairly certain their problems relate to the rather distasteful things seemingly required to be "successful" in todays market. When others "moved", they rested on their "old" formula. Enter Bernie that is his job... who I like, and who I think is considerably better than many, but I would not give him the glowing remarks you have. I will say, that Claiborne should be more successful than they are, especially given the talent they have... and one has to wonder if perhaps Claiborne finds themselves caught between their tradition of excellence (symbolized by the Hancock's and Koch's) and doing things the "current" way (symbolized by Bernie).
I do know that when people go to visit First Sam, they will find him looking fantastic and being cared for as well if not better than any other stallion. Quite simply, after visiting all the farms in the Bluegrass and many others elsewhere, I was never impressed more with the care, concern, and individual knowledge of the particular horse the way I was each time I visited Claiborne.
First Sam may not be "my" type of stallion, but few are. I think he, as well as 90% of all KY stallions, especially those in their first two years, is overpriced. However, I don't determine the market and, with a full book of shareholders and PAYING clients, I think the market has spoken... in a positive manner. Now we can only await the results.
However, I think if you look at those most critical of GC, you won't find a horse owner or breeder amoung them. Of course, they will cry "foul" and claim they don't have to be an owner or breeder to have an opinion, which is absolutely true, however they also don't have a financial interest in making sure their opinion is right.
Whether we like the way Ashford has handled GC's fee and book or not, apparently enough people with enough money believe in him to make sure his book is full... which it is. That tells me all I need to know. It is hard for us regular folks to fathom being able to play the game at that level, which, I suppose, for some causes ill-will.
Of course, much of the same arguments against GC can be leveled against Storm Cat himself. One can include the fact that Overbrook has done an absolutely horrible job in managing their other stallions.
As for First Samurai... if he got a full book... and his book filled with PAYING customers, then that is all I need to know about what the market thinks of him... my opinion matters little. I do have a couple problems with him, namely Giant's Causeway has proven he can get runners, however he is a completely unknown commodity when it comes to sires. The female family is somewhat suspect, and Pete hammered home my feelings toward the Broodmare sire. Simply, Secretariat-broodmare sire of sires... Dixieland Band-errr, not so much.
I did think First Sam was a pretty special racehorse, and I understand how partnerships and injuries often can negatively impact a horse, however if I had to sit down and do an analysis and try to come up with a comparable, I would have to look at Vindication. Now, I will admit, I have not seen First Sam, but I have seen Vindication and he looks like a stallion. In addition, Vindication comes from a sire who has produced a couple useful stallions. Neither has a female family to write home about, (of course neither did Danzig...). Vindication does stand at a farm who does a better job of "spin" and marketing than most others... Claiborne, is still behind in this respect (and some would say, they are failing).
Based on such a comparison, and looking at today's market, if Vindication has been as overwhelmingly popular as he has been, it is hard to argue that First Sam will not, at minimum, hold his own... as long as his foals "look" the part.
As far as Claiborne... I love the farm, I think the Hancock's and the Koch's are absolutely wonderful people... I am fairly certain their problems relate to the rather distasteful things seemingly required to be "successful" in todays market. When others "moved", they rested on their "old" formula. Enter Bernie that is his job... who I like, and who I think is considerably better than many, but I would not give him the glowing remarks you have. I will say, that Claiborne should be more successful than they are, especially given the talent they have... and one has to wonder if perhaps Claiborne finds themselves caught between their tradition of excellence (symbolized by the Hancock's and Koch's) and doing things the "current" way (symbolized by Bernie).
I do know that when people go to visit First Sam, they will find him looking fantastic and being cared for as well if not better than any other stallion. Quite simply, after visiting all the farms in the Bluegrass and many others elsewhere, I was never impressed more with the care, concern, and individual knowledge of the particular horse the way I was each time I visited Claiborne.
First Sam may not be "my" type of stallion, but few are. I think he, as well as 90% of all KY stallions, especially those in their first two years, is overpriced. However, I don't determine the market and, with a full book of shareholders and PAYING clients, I think the market has spoken... in a positive manner. Now we can only await the results.
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Rokeby Forever
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Hi Kal. The ONLY point of disagreement I have is that Northern Dancer sired an amazing amount of good stallions that did not do all that much on the racetrack...Danzig being just one of them, along with Vice Regent, and many, many others. I don't know of another stallion that can make that claim.
And, as you know, I think GC is a good value at $75,000 bred to the right mare...as opposed to the $300,000 he commands and the usual awful job that Coolmore/Ashford do with stallion management that nets GC only 29% winners. On the other hand, another 3 year stallion, More Than Ready, has sired an average of 149 foals of racing age/year, and his numbers (save GSW) totally outshine GC, with nowhere near the quality of mare that GC recieves. One could argue that he's also overbred, but the numbers are there - less foals, more stakes winners, more repeat winners, better AEI...does it take a breeder to realize this? More Than Ready won't hit the Home Run ball with a foal, but there are an awful lot of good ones around.
For years, Claiborne did not need a "PR" department...it had Woody Stephens to yuck up any horse on the farm. It was actually Stephens' mouthpiece that got Claiborne to stand Danzig at stud...Claiborne had always stood proven runners (as a rule) prior to him.
I enjoyed your posted message, Kal...thank you for writing it.
And, as you know, I think GC is a good value at $75,000 bred to the right mare...as opposed to the $300,000 he commands and the usual awful job that Coolmore/Ashford do with stallion management that nets GC only 29% winners. On the other hand, another 3 year stallion, More Than Ready, has sired an average of 149 foals of racing age/year, and his numbers (save GSW) totally outshine GC, with nowhere near the quality of mare that GC recieves. One could argue that he's also overbred, but the numbers are there - less foals, more stakes winners, more repeat winners, better AEI...does it take a breeder to realize this? More Than Ready won't hit the Home Run ball with a foal, but there are an awful lot of good ones around.
For years, Claiborne did not need a "PR" department...it had Woody Stephens to yuck up any horse on the farm. It was actually Stephens' mouthpiece that got Claiborne to stand Danzig at stud...Claiborne had always stood proven runners (as a rule) prior to him.
I enjoyed your posted message, Kal...thank you for writing it.
Guess the word is out on More Than Ready. I liked him from the start. He had so many things I look for in a stallion... speed, the ability to carry speed, soundness, and a versatility... I also liked how well his sire did with mares carrying certain strains (outcross strains that I sought in my mares).
We used him 5 times, but only got 2 foals... 1 lost to MRLS, 1 lost to who knows, and another lost in month 10 when wrapped in cord.... ughhh! We ran about 85% retention, it just so happens we seemed to lose the wrong ones at the wrong time...
Of course, I could have never justified using him at $40,000 for our mares, and I fear that fee will be difficult for those looking to breed-to-sell. However, for those breeding to race...
Of our 2 foals, no complaints, one is in training at Newmarket with an elite trainer / owner tandem. The other broke his maiden at Churchill and looked to be quite useful... but, I think he was shipped to Canada and got hurt.
Your point about Northern Dancer is well taken. I have thought that often, then looked at his AEI and asked myself... well, how did it get that high? Of course, I guess if I would read a certain book, written by a certain poster to this forum, I would probably know the answer.
I also am not so sure Mr. P is much different.... which begs the question... what is more important, potential or actual race record? In Danzig, they (Kwiatkowski and Claiborne) were banking on potential... Red Ransom is a similar story... so, if taking that into consideration, how important is race record especially when viewed counter to potential.
Perhaps, this valuation of potential explains the popularity and "buzz" factor of such stallions as Vindication and First Samurai (and the soon to probably be retired The Green Monkey).
On another note... I pretty much just regurgated the info about Danzig being from a questionable female family. It really depends upon how you look at it. If you look at it from sales page and stallion page, it does appear weak, however if you take into consideration that Will Farish was the breeder and Danzig sold fairly well... perhaps there was potential from the start. I have always thought that one should consider, somewhere along the line, the breeder or breeders involved in the pedigree of a critter. Those traditional heavyweights usually had the best and bred to the best... and sometimes those fantastic genes did not produce top-flight runners until a couple generations later.
We used him 5 times, but only got 2 foals... 1 lost to MRLS, 1 lost to who knows, and another lost in month 10 when wrapped in cord.... ughhh! We ran about 85% retention, it just so happens we seemed to lose the wrong ones at the wrong time...
Of course, I could have never justified using him at $40,000 for our mares, and I fear that fee will be difficult for those looking to breed-to-sell. However, for those breeding to race...
Of our 2 foals, no complaints, one is in training at Newmarket with an elite trainer / owner tandem. The other broke his maiden at Churchill and looked to be quite useful... but, I think he was shipped to Canada and got hurt.
Your point about Northern Dancer is well taken. I have thought that often, then looked at his AEI and asked myself... well, how did it get that high? Of course, I guess if I would read a certain book, written by a certain poster to this forum, I would probably know the answer.
I also am not so sure Mr. P is much different.... which begs the question... what is more important, potential or actual race record? In Danzig, they (Kwiatkowski and Claiborne) were banking on potential... Red Ransom is a similar story... so, if taking that into consideration, how important is race record especially when viewed counter to potential.
Perhaps, this valuation of potential explains the popularity and "buzz" factor of such stallions as Vindication and First Samurai (and the soon to probably be retired The Green Monkey).
On another note... I pretty much just regurgated the info about Danzig being from a questionable female family. It really depends upon how you look at it. If you look at it from sales page and stallion page, it does appear weak, however if you take into consideration that Will Farish was the breeder and Danzig sold fairly well... perhaps there was potential from the start. I have always thought that one should consider, somewhere along the line, the breeder or breeders involved in the pedigree of a critter. Those traditional heavyweights usually had the best and bred to the best... and sometimes those fantastic genes did not produce top-flight runners until a couple generations later.
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Rokeby Forever
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Hi Kal - love reading your posts! I can tell you that if you happen to run into Mr Miller one day, he'll tell you that Red Ransom was the most talented horse he ever trained. That's quite a statement coming from a man that trained Winter's Tale, Java Gold, Fit To Fight, and countless other heavyweights. The fact that he sent the horse with Scotty Schulhofer to Florida to prep for the Triple Crown races off only two sprints as a juvenile (instead of a vacation at Aiken) should speak for itself. In this case, potential certainly overrode race record.
Yes, I count on the knowledge of the beloved Mrs Hunter to answer any of my Northern Dancer questions. She's my nominee for honorable mention into the Racing Hall of Fame.
Unlike the top Northern Dancers, Danzig really had to work his way up the food chain from his introductory $10,000 fee. I think it's a stamp of greatness when a sire can do that...on the other hand, (and I know you may not like reading this), Giant's Causeway has received mare support early in his siring career unlike few sires in history, and if Coolmore/Ashford didn't breed him to a sheep with an owner willing to fork over $300,000, his numbers would be considerably better - but based on the mare quality he's received, I think he's an overall disappointment. He's still a young sire, but when I see a colt like Noble Causeway listed among his best, I start to scratch my head.
What I think is lost with all the Storm Cat hysteria is the emergence of the Hail To Reason sire line as becoming a dominant force in racing. Dynaformer has joined the elite stallions, and Sunday Silence (RIP), More Than Ready, Red Ransom, and others are siring as good a racehorse as there is out there - with Deep Impact poised to join the fray. Those proven are all tremendous "breed to race" sires (as compared to the higher end, Million Dollar yearling with "rock star status" breeding), but any one of them can sire a top class Grade 1 horse at any given time.
God bless 'em all....they all have a birthday on Monday.
Yes, I count on the knowledge of the beloved Mrs Hunter to answer any of my Northern Dancer questions. She's my nominee for honorable mention into the Racing Hall of Fame.
Unlike the top Northern Dancers, Danzig really had to work his way up the food chain from his introductory $10,000 fee. I think it's a stamp of greatness when a sire can do that...on the other hand, (and I know you may not like reading this), Giant's Causeway has received mare support early in his siring career unlike few sires in history, and if Coolmore/Ashford didn't breed him to a sheep with an owner willing to fork over $300,000, his numbers would be considerably better - but based on the mare quality he's received, I think he's an overall disappointment. He's still a young sire, but when I see a colt like Noble Causeway listed among his best, I start to scratch my head.
What I think is lost with all the Storm Cat hysteria is the emergence of the Hail To Reason sire line as becoming a dominant force in racing. Dynaformer has joined the elite stallions, and Sunday Silence (RIP), More Than Ready, Red Ransom, and others are siring as good a racehorse as there is out there - with Deep Impact poised to join the fray. Those proven are all tremendous "breed to race" sires (as compared to the higher end, Million Dollar yearling with "rock star status" breeding), but any one of them can sire a top class Grade 1 horse at any given time.
God bless 'em all....they all have a birthday on Monday.
Rokeby Forever wrote:What I think is lost with all the Storm Cat hysteria is the emergence of the Hail To Reason sire line as becoming a dominant force in racing. Dynaformer has joined the elite stallions, and Sunday Silence (RIP), More Than Ready, Red Ransom, and others are siring as good a racehorse as there is out there - with Deep Impact poised to join the fray. Those proven are all tremendous "breed to race" sires (as compared to the higher end, Million Dollar yearling with "rock star status" breeding), but any one of them can sire a top class Grade 1 horse at any given time.
Don't forget Arch and about-to-stand-his-2nd-season Rock Hard Ten. And, knock on wood, Barbaro if he can handle breeding in a year or two (obviously not 2007). He's got a full-sibling out and another one on the way right? Gotta love Dynaformer. We'll also have Silent Name (JPN) standing in KY at Adena Springs so that'll be fun with a Sunday Silence son actually getting a shot.
"Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana"
hi Rokeby Forever
If I recall correctly...initial shares in Danzig were offered at $80k and he stood (at the outset) for $20k.
Best to you...
and Happy New Year.
Respectfully
Rokeby Forever wrote:Unlike the top Northern Dancers, Danzig really had to work his way up the food chain from his introductory $10,000 fee.
If I recall correctly...initial shares in Danzig were offered at $80k and he stood (at the outset) for $20k.
Best to you...
and Happy New Year.
Respectfully
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Rokeby Forever
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