Early Derby Picks and subsequent evolution . . .

[Sam]

please quote where I said UB's fee was based on fees earned by his sons?

Unbridled's Song as a sire of sires thread. First page. 5th post.

Rokeby Forever wrote:
And, someone in the TB world thinks Unbridled's Song is a sire of sires - there's gotta be a reason why he stands for $200,000 when his average runner earns only $70,000 or so.

[Sam]

That talks about average earnings/runner....not stud fees of sons.

Not really. That may have been your intent, but it wasn't what you wrote.

This line is what I'm addressing:

someone in the TB world thinks Unbridled's Song is a sire of sires - there's gotta be a reason why he stands for $200,000 when his average runner earns only $70,000 or so

The implication is that Ub'S isn't earning his stud fee by siring racehorses (and I agree, he's not), therefore he must be earning it by siring sires (since you didn't mention his sales figures at all... what I suspect is really behind his studfee).

[Rokeby Forever]

Yeah, the sales figures do support the stud fee....but if the average colt is selling for $363,000 and his average runner is earning $70,000, someone must think that $290,000 can be made up with future stud fees - how else? So, there must be a few folks out there that think Unbridled Song sons are worthy of a stud career. What about this don't you understand? Am I chiseling concrete by explaining this?

[Sam]

So, there must be a few folks out there that think Unbridled Song sons are worthy of a stud career.

And what does someone else thinking a son is worth standing have to do with Unbridled's Song's stud fee?

THAT'S the question you keep ducking. YOU made the implication that his stud fee is somehow related to his sons going to stud.

You don't think he's getting it because of what they earn on the track (and I agree. I feel the need to keep reminding you of that). You're the one trying to draw a link between his son going to stud and what he commands for a stud fee. So tell us how they are connected.

Tell me why you think Ub'S is getting $200k because Northview decides to stand Domestic Dispute? Tell me why Millennium standing Even The Score should dictate what Taylor Made sets Unbridled's Song's stud fee at?

If you post ANYTHING but your reasoning on that, you are WASTING YOUR TIME and ducking the question.

Don't try to insult me, don't try to shift this to some other bullshit strawman. Stay focused and answer that direct question, because right now, the ONLY response you get from me is going to be my continually asking it until you do.

Here it is again:

Explain why you think Ub'S is getting $200k because Northview decides to stand Domestic Dispute? Tell me why Millennium standing Even The Score should dictate what Taylor Made sets Unbridled's Song's stud fee at?

[Rokeby Forever]

Again, you miss the entire point.

"Explain why you think Ub'S is getting $200k because Northview decides to stand Domestic Dispute? Tell me why Millennium standing Even The Score should dictate what Taylor Made sets Unbridled's Song's stud fee at?" - OK:

Sons constantly going to stud are what drives Unbridled's Song's fee - the potential for a yearling in the ring to one day go to stud is what makes his sons average $363,000. Buyers can look at stats just like anyone else and see that average runners earn $70,000 - - but they also see sons out there going to stud on a regular basis...and that's where the cash register lights go off in their heads...and why they're willing to to pay $363,000 for a son when they know he'll average $70,000 on the track. And, because the market will pay $363,000 average, Taylor Made can charge $200,000 for Unbridled Song's fee. If his sons stopped going to stud, his fee would suddenly drop like a lead balloon. That's the relationship.

Dynaformer is a top class sire, and stands for $150,000 (after working his way up to that amount). His average runner earns $96,000, and his AEI shows that he improves mares. How many sons of his have been shuttling off to stud every year? If, in his first few years as a sire, he had as many going off to stud as does Unbridled's Song, his stud fee would have been just as high as Unbridled's Song's is right now. Does this point sink in with you?

[geowarrior]

Uh, Sam and Rokeby, could you take this argument to another thread? I think the rest of us would like to play the Derby game.

[Toccet02]

Thank you Geowarrior, I was going to be "tread territorial" and request that very thing.
We can have a Boxing Match threads.....That would be fine.
Rokeby V. Sam Round 2......
In any case.....I may need to add on to my pick because I forgot all about Nobiz like Shobiz, who's sire I also liked a lot, and I thought NLS looked wonderful winning the Remsen.
So...adding Nobiz for pedigree and nostalgia!

[Ill-bred]

I'll take two chalks and a bomb...

1) Street Sense: BC Juvenile was one of the best performances by a two-year-old I've ever seen. (Rail bias is my only question on him).

2) Tiz Wonderful: Massive upside as he learns how to run, and he has already shown signs of the heart and stamina of his sire.

3) Forefathers: Gone West colt is out of a Lord At War mare and is way under the radar.

I also like Hard Spun, because I'd love to see Danzig pop a few more great ones...

[Des]

I liked NobIz Like Shobiz. I think he has a problem of bearing iin during his stretch and needs to get over his boyish actions. If he straightens that problem he'll be tough. I just love his movement.

[Toccet02]

3) Forefathers: Gone West colt is out of a Lord At War mare and is way under the radar.

Oooh...intriguing. Didn't know about him. Great name too.

[Rokeby Forever]

You'll have to excuse Sam and her lapses of sanity.

What about Dreaming of Anna? She beaten the boys and has shown a liking for Churchill.

[Toccet02]

That's not "stopping fighting", it's continuing it...please resisit the temptation.
People aleady mentioned Dreaming of Anna. She's indeed considered here.

[madelyn]

I'm afraid I HAVE to root for Street Sense. I've got a mare in foal to Street Cry.

They've already raised Street Cry to $50K for '07, what would happen to his fee if Street Sense gets another Classic win?

[geowarrior]

Only thing about Street Sense - B.C. Juvenile jinx.

I'm not rooting for this horse particularly, but Izzie's Halo (2nd in Lecomte) should be considered in the mix. Some of these unbeaten ones might be peaking too early whereas Izzie's Halo is showing steady improvement.

[Toccet02]

I always kind of felt that "peaking too early" notion was a bit of a cop-out.
If a horse is truly talented, shouldn't it be able to perform consistently well? If it's up to the trainer, why wouldn't they want to train for a staedy consistent level of performance?
If you space races out enough, couldn't you expect a fabulous performabce almost every time?
I'm derailing my own thread....but I have wondered about that.