Unbridled's Song as a "sire of sires"

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Toccet02
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Postby Toccet02 » Tue Jan 16, 2007 9:11 pm

Rokeby Forever wrote:Why "OUCH"? He would have been another Mountain Cat from the esteemed collection of Storm Cat stiff stallions.


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Sam
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Postby Sam » Tue Jan 16, 2007 9:44 pm

brogers wrote:You started this thread with the a priori assumption

Rokeby is an a priori assumption, B :wink: I was wondering when you'd jump in :lol:

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Wed Jan 17, 2007 12:23 am

I might suggest that of sons of stallions such as AP Indy and Storm Cat, the ones that retire with 10 starts or less (Bernardini and Bluegrass Cat, let's say), are Grade 1 winners and are promptly shuttled off to the shed to stand for high initial fees.

Was a horse like Buddha shuttled off to stud to stand for $50,000+ after only 4 starts because of breeding demand, or because he fell apart after the Wood Memorial? Did Rockport Harbor have any soundness issues, even before he ran in the Remsen? Was Eurosliver a viable TC candidate...and stopped on because of his breeding value before the KY Derby? Was Songandaprayer retired in the summer of his 3 year old campaign because he was an initial fee $50,000 stallion? Why did Value Plus disappear after the Carter Handicap (I believe it was)? It was only May...why not keep him in training and possibly point for the BC Sprint? Ouch...that last one made my ribs hurt!

I'm not cherrypicking, as others might claim - these are high profile sons of Unbridled's Song. Did any of them retire sound? Did any of them make 20 starts?

Brogers is right...such is racing in 2007 and commercial breeding, and Unbridled's Song isn't necessarily a poster boy - I just got tired of picking on Storm Cat and having Sam chase me around the room with a water pistol. LOL!

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Postby Sam » Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:27 pm

Putting this in here where it belongs...

Rokeby Forever wrote:Sons constantly going to stud are what drives Unbridled's Song's fee - the potential for a yearling in the ring to one day go to stud is what makes his sons average $363,000. Buyers can look at stats just like anyone else and see that average runners earn $70,000 - - but they also see sons out there going to stud on a regular basis...and that's where the cash register lights go off in their heads...and why they're willing to to pay $363,000 for a son when they know he'll average $70,000 on the track. And, because the market will pay $363,000 average, Taylor Made can charge $200,000 for Unbridled Song's fee. If his sons stopped going to stud, his fee would suddenly drop like a lead balloon. That's the relationship.

*points... laughs*

Well, I'll give you points for the effort. Now I'll just sit here and let someone else point out the biggest hole in that (il)logic.

I'll give you a hint and a project. Go look at a list of all the UbSs at stud. Find out how many of them sold at public auction and for what price. Look up the ratio of UbS that are homebreds and how many go through the sales.... the key phrase is "Commercial breeder"

In case that's too difficult.... Why would I spend $200k on a stud fee for a horse I fully intend to sell that may or may not turn a profit (on a $200k studfee, I would want nothing less than $300k for the foal) so SOMEONE ELSE can put it to stud and 'make all their money back'? Your convoluted logic only works on homebred stallions.

*head shake* I really effin' hate trolls. Crawl back under your bridge, I'm done with you.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:56 pm

Is that a fact, Sam?

Someone gladly paid the Storm Cat $500,000 to get $8 Million for Mr Sekiguchi (Will Farish, was it?)

In the case of Unbridled's Song, the stud fee was paid for Rockport Harbor to sell for $575,000 at the sales. I believe he's standing at stud next year.

Didn't Songandaprayer sell for $1 Million as a 2 year old? He's at stud, I do believe.

The only holes are in your head.

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Postby Sam » Wed Jan 17, 2007 3:13 pm

Yeah... okay... one last post just to make a point (that will clearly be lost in the blackhole of Rokeby's brain).

Unbridled's Song median sales figures:

Weanling: $205k (54 sold)
Yearling: $200k (374 sold)
2 year old: $175k (66 sold)
Older Horses: $17,000 (7 sold)
Broodmares: $72,000 (97 sold)
Stallions: $15,000 (1 sold)

Medians can't really be manipulated like averages can which is why they are more meaningful number to me.

Please tell me why I would pay a $200k stud fee so I MIGHT be one of the lucky 25 people to sell my weanling for maybe 5k more than the studfee? Please tell me why I should pay a $200k stud fee so I MIGHT be one of the 187 who got their stud fee back?

You really think someone is going look at those numbers and spend that kind money so someone ELSE can stud the horse to finally make money off it? And even if they did, Taylor Made shouldn't give a damn. Why should they? So long as 200 people line up to breed to UbS, I seriously doubt Taylor Made gives a damn what a 3rd or 4th party 5 years from now does with the foal.

Face it, you made some BS illogical statement and when you got called on it, you chose to defend it rather than admit what a dumbass statement it was. In fact, I'm willing to bet you don't really even believe it either.. you're just defending it because you're getting a modicum of attention from it.

UbS's stud fee is in no way affected by a third party (IOW, NOT the breeder) deciding to stand one of his sons or what they stand for. He gets $200k/foal because someone is willing to breed to him for that price, not because a third party MIGHT stand one of his sons at a later date. It really is that simple... which is why it amuses me you think otherwise.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Wed Jan 17, 2007 3:45 pm

So, let me understand your logic - people are plunking down $200,000 to breed a horse that, according to average, will earn $70,000. Shrewd business!

Plus, your median numbers go back how far...to his introductory fee? Against his introductory fee, $200,000 median looks pretty damn good - just made Swiss Cheese of your dumb argument. Why not compare numbers against his current fee...because it shoots you down faster than a clay pigeon?

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Postby Sam » Wed Jan 17, 2007 3:54 pm

Rokeby Forever wrote:So, let me understand your logic - people are plunking down $200,000 to breed a horse that, according to average, will earn $70,000

People are paying it because they are SELLING THE FOAL BEFORE IT EVEN RACES.

Why should I care what the horse earns after I SELL IT! I only care what I can sell the horse for. If I know the average sales price on an UbS is $300k and *I*, personally have NO INTENTION OF RACING THE FOAL, why should I care what the average earnings of his foals are? That's for the poor sucker who buys the horse from me to worry about. I am interested on his SALES FIGURES ONLY. I couldn't give a flying f*ck what his runners earn or even if they start. I see an average sales price of $300k on a $200k stud fee. THAT IS ALL I CARE ABOUT. People breeding to UbS are breeding for a million dollar sales yearling, they don't give a damn what happens after that yearling leaves the ring.

In the current market flooded with commercial breeders, sales figures and earnings are two totally different and virtually unrelated items. UbS will continue to get $200k/foal so long as people are willing to breed to him at that figure so they can SELL THE FOAL. It's about SALES FIGURES with him, not earnings. His stud fee will go down when people stop paying for his yearlings. It is not now and has NEVER been affected by his sons at stud and you are an illogical effin' moron for even trying to draw a link between the two.

Remember what I said last night about attention whores? You just proved yourself one.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:15 pm

I love Yankee fan logic - no wonder they can't build a playoff team.

The day UBS's sons stop getting shuffled to stud is the day you'll see his yearling prices tumble along with his stud fee. The two are directly related.

Cozzene has sired a ton of good horses - how many went on to become stallions? Did he ever stand for $200,000? Not even close!

First you say:

Please tell me why I would pay a $200k stud fee so I MIGHT be one of the lucky 25 people to sell my weanling for maybe 5k more than the studfee? Please tell me why I should pay a $200k stud fee so I MIGHT be one of the 187 who got their stud fee back?

Then you say:

I see an average sales price of $300k on a $200k stud fee. THAT IS ALL I CARE ABOUT. People breeding to UbS are breeding for a million dollar sales yearling.

Are you a split personality? I guess you have to be to try to justify your idiotic logic.

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Postby brogers » Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:53 pm

Sam & Rokeby

You both raise some interesting points, but I think that the truth is becoming a casualty in your efforts to make some points.

Firstly Rokeby you stated

Was a horse like Buddha shuttled off to stud to stand for $50,000+ after only 4 starts because of breeding demand, or because he fell apart after the Wood Memorial? Did Rockport Harbor have any soundness issues, even before he ran in the Remsen? Was Eurosliver a viable TC candidate...and stopped on because of his breeding value before the KY Derby? Was Songandaprayer retired in the summer of his 3 year old campaign because he was an initial fee $50,000 stallion? Why did Value Plus disappear after the Carter Handicap (I believe it was)? It was only May...why not keep him in training and possibly point for the BC Sprint? Ouch...that last one made my ribs hurt!


1) Buddha has never stood for more than $17,500 I believe. I don’t disagree that he was unsound but I think in his case Unbridled’s Song was less of the two evils. If you have ever seen Cahooters you can understand why Buddha made so few starts.
2) Eurosilver got sick before the Triple Crown after an adverse reaction to an injection. He came back at four and won a G3 and ran second to Saint Liam in the Stephen Foster.
3) Value Plus never ran in the Carter. He set a new stakes record at Gulfstream in the Artax Handicap in April as a four year old and ran 3rd in the Westchester Stakes in May. He ended up running through into the Cigar Mile where he ran 5th to Purge before retiring to stud. The Cigar Mile is run at the end of the year after the BC Sprint so I guess he did as you asked and stayed in training.

Sam, You stated

Please tell me why I would pay a $200k stud fee so I MIGHT be one of the lucky 25 people to sell my weanling for maybe 5k more than the studfee? Please tell me why I should pay a $200k stud fee so I MIGHT be one of the 187 who got their stud fee back?


That is a flawed statement. The median sales returns that you cite are off his lifetime performance where he has stood for $30,000, $75,000, $100,000 and $125,000. Actually if you took his median service fee in the same period that you have generated your median sales returns then his median fee in that period is $75,000. With the numbers you cite above that looks a pretty decent return in the sale ring for those who have sold weanlings and yearlings by him to date.

You further stated
You really think someone is going look at those numbers and spend that kind money so someone ELSE can stud the horse to finally make money off it? And even if they did, Taylor Made shouldn't give a damn. Why should they? So long as 200 people line up to breed to UbS, I seriously doubt Taylor Made gives a damn what a 3rd or 4th party 5 years from now does with the foal


I know that you made the statement to prove a point, but there is some fallacies in this statement also. Firstly Taylor Made are acutely aware that a high percentage of horses that he sires that end up in the sale ring and not in the hands of high end “breed to race” breeders. We are in a service industry and we are always aware that you have to get your customer in the best position to get a return otherwise they don't come back - it is a simple as that.

To suggest that “200 people line up” is misguided. Last year Unbridled’s Song served 144 mares at $150,000, the most mares he has ever served in a season. The decision was made to take the horse to $200,000 based on the fact that while achieving outstanding fertility in the end, we felt that such a high number of mares did not give the breeder the best opportunity to breed their mare at the time it needed to be bred. Also, Unbridled’s Song was telling us that 140 was pushing the envelope with him physically.

So we took the view that if we raised him to $200,000 and served 100 mares the financial result would be the same for the syndicate as if he stood at $150,000 but we would be in a better position with the breeders who support him to get their mare bred in a timely fashion and also give Unbridled’s Song an easier time of it. As a by product this will mean that there are less yearlings in the marketplace by Unbridled’s Song in a few years time. We think that this will help those who have bred to him at the $200,000 fee, gain considerable returns via supply and demand. Unbridled’s Song has served some big books of quality mares the last few years so we are sure that his racetrack results will continue and give those that are breeding at $200,000 a good result on their investment in him.

The decision to go to $200,000 was considered and discussed at length at Taylor Made. We think the welfare of Unbridled’s Song and the requirements of our clients are paramount to his ongoing success. If you think we should have done something differently please let me know.

You finally added

In the current market flooded with commercial breeders, sales figures and earnings are two totally different and virtually unrelated items. UbS will continue to get $200k/foal so long as people are willing to breed to him at that figure so they can SELL THE FOAL. It's about SALES FIGURES with him, not earnings. His stud fee will go down when people stop paying for his yearlings


That is true, but the logical extension of that is that people will stop paying for his yearlings when he fails to get the racetrack results! There are only 12 active stallions in North America who sired 10 or more unrestricted stakes winners in 2006 and he was one of them. He has had 10 or more unrestricted stakes winners in North America the last three years running in fact and there are only two other stallions to do this – AP Indy and Storm Cat. The perception is that they don’t last long (which is erroneous in my opinion as I have detailed previously) but if he stopped getting the results that he does get then we would quickly and swiftly hear about it in the sales ring. You can’t live off zero racetrack performance, especially at that level of service fee.

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Postby Sam » Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:59 pm

Tag, you got me. I'm posting incomplete thoughts... just like you do when you ask about the stallion stats of a MARE!

The point I'm trying to make is that a commercial breeder, for the most part, does not give a f*ck what happens to the horse after he sells it. He doesn't care if it only makes a tenth of what he sold it for, he doesn't even care if it starts and he sure as shit doesn't care if it ever goes to stud. None of those factors contribute largely to his breeding to UbS. The ONLY thing that matters to a commercial breeder is "can this sire produce a yearling I can sell for profit?" The average says yes.

The ONLY thing that matters to someone breeding to UbS is whether or not the yearling sales average justify the stud fee. For a lot of people, it does.

When people no longer think they can get a million dollar yearling from him, they will stop breeding to him. Your f*cked up logic only applies to people who are actually keeping the horse they breed. THOSE are the people who care what his runners average. There aren't that many UbSs who stay with their breeders and go on to stud. MOST of them go through the sales ring before they ever even start. So long as people are willing to breed to him in the hopes of getting a million dollar yearling, they'll leave his stud fee where it is.

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Postby Sam » Wed Jan 17, 2007 6:17 pm

brogers wrote:You can’t live off zero racetrack performance, especially at that level of service fee.

Agreed, and I didn't mean to imply you could or that he was. From what I can see, he's living off commercial appeal as a sales sire. Yes, he's getting high profile winners, which is what helps his sales appeal... but can you really sit there and tell me you are setting his stud fee based on someone else standing one of his sons, how many sons he has at stud or what they are commanding, because that is what Rokeby is asserting.

Commercial breeders want a million dollar yearling. The only thing that helps that is track hype -- stakes winners. NOT whether or not the horse eventually goes to stud. The kind of sire he is, it's all about stakes horses, not average earnings. Luckily we've not yet reached a point where the horse gets his stud fee because he sold for $5m as a yearling and never set foot on a track. The day I start seeing unraced sires by unraced sires out of unraced dams with $25k stud fees and stallion ads reading "$5m yearling by a $6m yearling and out of a $4m yearling" is the day I leave this place behind for good.

I'm no fan of the horse as a runner or a sire, never really have been, but for the kind of stallion he is I can't fault where you have the stud fee.

I just refuse to believe you guys really take how many sons he has at stud into consideration when you set his stud fee, which is what Rokeby keeps saying.

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Postby Sam » Wed Jan 17, 2007 6:42 pm

*deleting PC hiccuped double post*
Last edited by Sam on Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Wed Jan 17, 2007 6:58 pm

We all get wound up with emotions and lose track of thought, Sam...but logically:

Very few sires have improved mares like Cozzene...he has plenty of millionaires to prove it...but how many sons of Cozzene are at stud? Does Running Stag stand for more than a ham sandwich?

Despite Cozzene's fantastic numbers, his stud fee is now only $35,000 (down from a top of around $60,000, I believe). He has NO value as a stallion that's going to sire a stallion or stallion prospect. Thus, his sales numbers are low no matter what stands in the ring with him listed as the sire.

People will pay $1 Million for an UbS because they're thinking ahead - possibly knock off a Grade 1 and ship the son off to stud. What else justifies buying one for that much? A pretty tail?

If UbS had only 3 sons at stud at this point, buyers would not be paying $363,000 average for his sons and he would not be getting $200,000 as a stud fee. Period.

Why is this so difficult to comprehend?

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Postby Sam » Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:15 pm

Rokeby Forever wrote:People will pay $1 Million for an UbS because they're thinking ahead - possibly knock off a Grade 1 and ship the son off to stud.

And that has f*ck all to do with his stud fee. They think they can pick off a G1 because he is getting G1 performers.

Rokeby Forever wrote:If UbS had only 3 sons at stud at this point, buyers would not be paying $363,000 average for his sons and he would not be getting $200,000 as a stud fee. Period.

I suppose you think Kris S. got a $150k stud fee because of all his wonderful sons at stud?

Wrong. Very wrong and you are too much of a useless attention whore to bother with anymore.

FOAD, troll.