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Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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Sam
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Postby Sam » Sun Jan 21, 2007 10:42 am

Rokeby Forever wrote:I didn't say Fu Peg was a success....I said he was "significant."

And showing your desire to be a troll by selective reading and incomprehension.

It would behoove you to pay attention to the FULL sentence, comprehend all parts of it and comment accordingly instead of picking one word and flipping it to start a fight.

Let me refresh your memory: "Significant american classic winner turned sire". That means a horse who wins the classic and goes on to achieve success as a sire, as demonstrated by the examples cited: A.P. Indy, Unbridled, Pine Bluff, Summer Squall. Not just a horse that wins a classic and goes to stud, regardless of stud fee. Most people with a brain know money doesn't immediately equate to quality. So you think F.U. Peg is a significant sire just because he gets 100k per foal and is bred to everything this side of a donkey? You really think he is the same kind of sire as A.P. Indy and Unbridled? :roll:

No, I do not "differentiate when I used the term "significant" re: Thunder Gulch, I even said he was not a bad sire. I just said most breeders don't like a female heavy sex bias and that if you breed to him, pray for a mare. From personal experience with clients, that is a knock against him. He's going to make a very significant Broodmare sire, though.

And count me in the group who contends Sunday Silence would have been just another $10k bay stallion in Kentucky if he'd stayed here. He would never have achieved the level of success here that he had in Japan. Zero interest from breeders here, a mare base completely different to Japan, different racing surfaces and way too much competition for the mare level he would have had to start at. He may well have worked his way up to the elite, but he would not have been the superstar stud he was in Japan.

And what relevance does Cat Thief have?

Rokeby Forever
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Postby Rokeby Forever » Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:07 am

Sure, Sam...just like you would have said that Southern Halo would have never been a success in this country (because breeders were too stupid to figure out that he nicked with Buckpasser so well)...then when someone tried it, More Than Ready popped up...a real stiff sire in this country through Southern Halo, huh?

Sam, if ignorance were bliss, you'd be a saint. Go back to saying:

People buy Unbridled's Song colts to buy a future sire when Taylor Made's own website has a link dedicated to him being a "sire of sires".

Keep rooting for ARod in the 9th inning in a playoff game LOL!!!!
What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:31 am

*"People DON'T buy an Unbridled's Song...."

With Thunder Gulch, "pray for a mare" - wanna tell that to Circular Quay? I imagine he'll be at Ashford one day getting 180 mares a year...they must be crying that he isn't a filly, huh? Dr Pleasure was cut out to be a good one - but the John Ward butcher shop caught up with him. Then there's always Point Given...enough said.

I love labels on stallions....like, Rahy is just a "filly" sire - of his 9 leading runners in 2006, 5 were male. Fantastic Light is his best, and he was NO filly. It helps at the sales when a stallion gets stereotyped...you can by a nice offspring of the ridiculed sex for much less.
What synthetics are to California racing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU

Sam
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Postby Sam » Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:38 am

Rokeby Forever wrote:Go back to saying:

People buy Unbridled's Song colts to buy a future sire when Taylor Made's own website has a link dedicated to him being a "sire of sires".

You would also do well to not attribute shit to me that I never said, like the above. That was your moronic statement.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:42 am

OK, let's attribute the Thoroughbred Corp being sooooo disappointed that Point Given wasn't female. Classic Sam. LOL!
What synthetics are to California racing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU

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fastappy
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Postby fastappy » Sun Jan 21, 2007 1:24 pm

[quote="KAL"]Pioneering... 125?

Then I stand corrected... I guess he is gaining quite a bit of support from the breed-to-race folks. That is a 91 mare increase from 2005... Wow!

And to think, his sales average and median for 2006 is less than $9000. Do you think the breeders incentive funds are having this big an impact?

Okay... I still agree with Rokeby that it is a little late to turn him (Pioneering, not Rokeby) into a $20,000 stallion. I am not certain how this might translate into my thoughts about Overbrook and how they have managed their stallions... perhaps I have been unduly harsh.[/quote]

I agree with Rokeby Forever as well, regarding Pioneering and I don't think you are being too harsh in that regard. Pioneering has developed into a very affordable & successful breed to run sire. I had planned to breed to him this year, but elected not to because of those limitations (sales, limited upward potential for commercial value, etc.), coupled with transportation & boarding expense would have exceeded the stud fee. I am attempting to get a little more stallion for the money, but have stayed with a Mr. P sire. I think Pioneering is a great value nonetheless.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Sun Jan 21, 2007 1:49 pm

Thank you, Fastappy...and good luck!

Speaking of Overbrook, was there EVER a gameplan with Grindstone? They got what they could with an Unbridled/Drone colt before his pedigree caught up with him, but what's up with him winding up at the $3,500 level when other unsound Unbridleds (Empire Maker, Unbridled's Song) stand for a heck of a lot more and didn't even win the KY Derby? He's got a multiple Grade 1 winning son (Birdstone) and 2 millionaires - Unbridled's Song has only 3 millionaires, and I can't think of a multiple Grade 1 winning son he's ever sired. Grindstone might as well stand with Vicar in Korea for what Overbrook gets for him.
What synthetics are to California racing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:01 am

I was just thinking about one of Sam's interesting statements on this thread. Sam wrote:

Most people with a brain know money doesn't immediately equate to quality. So you think F.U. Peg is a significant sire just because he gets 100k per foal and is bred to everything this side of a donkey? You really think he is the same kind of sire as A.P. Indy and Unbridled? Rolling Eyes

Everything this side of a donkey? Fu Peg got 131 mares in 2006.

On the other hand...Giant's Causeway got 191 mares in 2006 - and at 300K a pop, he was probably bred not to "everything this side of a donkey" but EVERY strong family there is out there. You're right..."money doesn't immediately equate to quality" - Giant's Causeway's 25% winners and 2% SW from foals sure proves that!

For a critic of Sunday Silence as a horse that would have stood for $10K in America, 7 out of Giant's Causeway's top 9 money earners are by European mares. Maybe on that basis, Giant's Causeway should stand for only $10,000 in this country and stay in Europe.
What synthetics are to California racing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU

halo
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Postby halo » Mon Jan 22, 2007 4:56 am

Giants Causeway has 5% stakes winners from foals, not 2%.

Rokeby Forever
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Postby Rokeby Forever » Mon Jan 22, 2007 11:14 am

Actually, 23 out of 678 = 3%. Where did you come up with 5%?
What synthetics are to California racing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU

halo
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Postby halo » Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:24 pm

Yr Fls Rnrs Wnrs(Sws)
==============

2002 140 121 70(11)
2003 163 117 69(11)
2004 115 46 10( 0)


From Bloodstock Research, 418 foals, 22 stakes winners. I certainly hope you arent adding in 2005 foals which havent even stepped foot on the racetrack yet.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:35 pm

Ack! I hate January numbers...Grrrrr! Good catch!

I have records indicating 507 horses of racing age, 23 SWs, and 13 GSWs....which translates to 4% SWs, 2% GSWs. Might be good numbers for some sires, but not with the quality of books that GC has received. More Than Ready has almost as many foals and look how he outshines GC with nowhere near the quality of mares.

Based on the strength of mares that GC has received, he figures to be a prominent broodie sire one day....but it may not be because of him as much as the strength of the families on the broodie dam side. Storm Cat himself has an SSI about the same as the other numbers you can compare his broodies to (from first 5 crops or so)...SC's first 5 books weren't the strongest, but he hasn't moved up nearly enough to warrant, "Gee, that SC is some broodie sire, huh?" You can argue that he's the broodie sire of Jump Start, Buddha, Sky Mesa, and some like them...pretty much "here today, gone tomorrow" types. I suppose when Storm Flag Flying produces a Graded winner or two, people will say, "Wow! That Storm Cat is a great broodie sire!" How could he not be with a daughter like that?
What synthetics are to California racing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU

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geowarrior
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Postby geowarrior » Mon Jan 22, 2007 2:38 pm

No one has taken up Rokeby on his (her?) statement about Real Quiet. I think Real Quiet's career at stud has been somewhat mismanaged and subsequently dogged by bad luck. He started off being shuttled back and forth to the Southern Hemisphere and was one of those unfortunates that was ejected from Kentucky without really being given a chance to prove himself. Then in Pennsylvania a tragedy struck the owners of the farm where he was standing and I think that will have the unfortunate effect of hurting his stats for a couple of years to come. Despite all that, he has had several graded stakes winners/placers just in the past year, including two GI stakes winners to my knowledge. I would love to breed to Real Quiet if I ever had the opportunity. He is now at Pin Oak in Pennsylvania. It is worth noting that his stud fee was rising in the light of the stakes winners he was producing. However, on his relocation to Pin Oak, his stud fee has been reduced again, probably to try to increase the size of his book, which I think decreased following the tragedy at Regal Heir.

KAL
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Postby KAL » Mon Jan 22, 2007 4:03 pm

Many of the problems with the management of Real Quiet were directly related to some problems within the ownership.

The hype machine never got behind him. He isn't the most fashionably bred, commercially. Baffert hurt his cause by pointing out how he looked early (breeders didn't want a "fish" foal going through the sales ring). His foals didn't particularly stand-out. And, of course the problems within the ownership group undercut much of the positives.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Mon Jan 22, 2007 4:16 pm

That's a good point, KAL. Baffert often called Silver Charm a "ham sandwich"
What synthetics are to California racing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU