austique wrote:In fairness to Sam she has agreed that the program ignores the female family.
But if she acknowledges that (as well as the fact that HUMANS make the recommendations, not computers, and only idiots would breed solely on the nick), she can't continue to take shots at me or Werk and continue to ignore the fact that she's pissed off because her car can't cook a turkey. Like most people, she's blaming a program for her own ignorance in understanding it.
As for the comment about "name" stallions being neccessary... Hoist Bar was a CRAP sire, THAT is why it has to go back to Turn-To.
Malek to Cruella D's nick is run on the Nashua over Turn-To cross and the reason it goes that far back is because the lines from Nashua to Malek and from Turn-To to Shanekite are SO obscure.
Malek's branch doesn't come through the more traditional Nashua lines (of which there aren't that many to begin with, Papa Ricco and Diplomat Way are the only two I'm aware of and even those I think nick on Nashua) and took a detour when Good Manners was sent to Argentina.
Shanekite's branch of Turn-To isn't just obscure, it's OBSOLETE. His sire, Hoist Bar is probably the ONLY son of Hoist Away (by Turn-To) to go to stud and is one of the few purebred thoroughbred decendants from the prominent quarter horse sire Three Bars (being out of a TB daugher of Three Bars named Bimy Bar). Side note ... I was most likely at Mira Loma the year Cruella D was born and if she was born there, I probably have a pic of her somewhere. Shane and I were old buds

but I liked Government program and Snow Chief more.
MOST branches of Turn-to don't actually nick ON Turn-To, they nick on the more modern sires like Kris S., Roberto, Hail To Reason, Sir Gaylord, First Landing, etc. Just for the heck of it, I ran Malek to Cellars Shiraz (a granddaughter of Kris S.) and it comes up as a 0SW (no letter grade at all) nick based on Nashua over Roberto. If ANY nick has to go all the way back to Turn-To, you are dealing with some REALLY obscure and quiet branches.
Malek to Cruella D is an F nick with a (-52%) level. Now I don't remember exactly how that percentage is calculated or what it represents (it's a probability of something, but I forget what), but what that means is that there has been SOME stakes success on that cross through the last 50 years, but not a whole hell of a lot. That's bad, but no where near as bad as the Malek to Sunday's Child nick.
Malek to Sunday's Child's nick is run on the Nashua over Damascus cross for pretty much the same reason Malek/Cruella D went all the way back to Turn-To. Prior to Malley Girl winning her stake, it had no letter grade and 0SW.
Basically, you can't get a letter grade without a stakes winner and you can't get the corralative percentage without multiple stakes winners. Once Malley Girl won her stake, the system gives it a grade and then flags it as 1SW instead of giving it a percentage. That 1SW basically tells Jack that there is a nick there, but it only has one stakes winner so he needs to look at it and determine if it's a breeding worth recommending. In this case, it would not be because of the really low grade.
Back to Malek and Nashua. With the fact that there are now two decent sons of Mocito Guapo and a high concentration of Desert Wine mares in California, that F (1SW) nick on Nashua/Damascus has the potential to change in the future if more and more daughters of Desert Wine are covered by Malek or Memo and produce stakes winners. There's every reason to believe it could turn into a D nick based on Mocito Guapo over Damascus in the next 5 years.
I do not see the F nick from Malek/Cruella D changing though because there aren't enough mares from any of the more modern branches of Turn-To in California to make an impact and Malek/Memo are the only sons of Mocito Guapo in this country so they are pretty isolated. Had one or both of them wound up in Florida, there is a high concentration of Kris S. line mares there that they may have eventually formed a Nashua/Roberto nick.
The nicks change the second the broodmare sireline changes.
If Cruella D and Sunday's Child had both come from different branches of Roberto, the nick grade/(percentage) and cross it was based on would have been exactly the same. Since Cruella D and Sunday's Child were by two different sireslines, the nicks and the crosses they were based on were both different.
This may help. Reckless Rose has 5 daughters by 5 different sires. Nicked with Malek, the grades and crosses are as follows:
Malek to Dayla (by Marvin's Policy x Reckless Rose) gives a B (+52%) based on the Good Manners - Raise A Native cross.
Malek to Navarro Rose (by Native Prospector x Reckless Rose) gives a C (+4%) based on the Good Manners - Mr. Prospector cross.
Malek to Cruella D (by Shanekite x Reckless Rose) gives an F (-52%) based on the Nashua - Turn-To cross.
Malek to Sunday's Child (by Desert Wine x Reckless Rose) gives an F (1SW) based on the Nashua - Damascus cross.
Malek to Pirate's Swan Song (by Pirate's Bounty x Reckless Rose) gives a 0SW based on the Nashua - Hoist The Flag cross.
See how the letter grade and percentile changed each time the broodmare sireline did?
The reason Dayla and Navarro Rose were able to produce nicks to Good Manners instead of Nashua is because there was most likely enough Raise A Native and Mr. Prospector daughters exported to Argentina to have been covered by Good Manners and Mocito Guapo, drop stakes winners and form a nick. There probably have not been many mares who tail male to Turn-To or Damascus exported to Argentina so they are more difficult to nick to the Mocito Guapo/Good Manners/Nashua sireline.
As I keep trying to get through to
cough Nijinsky, the nick only reflects what's going on sireline to broodmare sireline. She's right, Malek has managed to hit with her female family, and breeding to him might well be a good idea because of that if you are ONLY trying to get a using racehorse.
Since she pulled an actual percentage instead of just the (1SW), there is a modicum of potential on that cross. Who knows, she make even produce a horse that makes the F (-52%) nick move up to an F (+1%) nick. I personally wouldn't do it thinking I was going to get a stakes winner. I'd do it with the hope that I'd get a decent allowance horse. If you think you are going to breed Cruella D to Malek and get a graded stakes winner, you're aspirations are far too high. There's a fine line between dream and delusion.
Me personally, the nick I would watch would be that last one at 0SW. There are an awful lot of GOOD Pirate's Bounty mares in California and I'm sure Malek and Memo are going to see their share of them. I don't anticipate that staying a 0SW for much longer and I don't see it starting at an F grade either. I'm pretty sure that will be at least a D when it finally hits.
Not all (1SW) are classified as F. I've seen C and B (1SW)s, but they generally are based on young stallions from sires who already have a high nick to that broodmare sire (Like Mr. Prospector over Northern Dancer) so there is a high probability of the son also providing a quality nick. Forty Niner for instance. Rock Hard Ten is another. RHT to Manistique is a B (1SW) on the Roberto/Unbridled cross.
In the begining, all of Forty Niner's nicks were based on Mr. Prospector. After he'd been at stud for a few years and producing stakes winners, the sons started going to stud. Within 2 years of the sons at stud and throwing stakes winners in their first crop, the system could see the nicks for Forty Niner forming (because he and his sons were siring more and more stakes winners from the same broodmare sirelines) and ranked him accordingly. I think the initial Forty Niner nicks started at B and went up from there.
There will be the occasional Forty Niner nick that has to go back to Mr. Prospector, but that would be because Forty Niner and his sons haven't seen many of the mares from that broodmare sire/sireline. IOW, you'd get a nick for Forty Niner over Seattle Slew, but if you tried to run him to a Bold Ruckus mare, it would come back as Mr. Prospector over Bold Ruckus.
austique wrote:Now back to Caro and Mr. P and why they seem to be fickle friends

It's probably nothing more than how the chormosones fall. The part that always amused me is how often one nick can be a failure, but flip it and you score well. I think it really is nothing more than some sirelines work better as Broodmare sire lines. Secretariat continuously nicked low as a sire. I don't think I've seen a nick with him as the broodie sire that wasn't at least a B. It's part of the reason I'm keeping an eye on Risen Star/Tinners Way mares.