Mr P over Caro why doesn't it work?

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Nijinsky
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Postby Nijinsky » Wed Feb 01, 2006 4:22 pm

Frankly, you can go to 100 different pedigree analysts and get 100 different answers from the same set of statistics. Statistics are open to interpretation and everyone has a bias.


I agree :)

Werk is no more useless or useful than any other number of services out there because when you are working with flesh and blood you can't distill success down to a number no matter how impressive the process which produced that number may have been.


I disagree....some are better than others and have shown a higher success rate !

:lol:
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Postby Sam » Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:13 pm

austique wrote:In fairness to Sam she has agreed that the program ignores the female family.

But if she acknowledges that (as well as the fact that HUMANS make the recommendations, not computers, and only idiots would breed solely on the nick), she can't continue to take shots at me or Werk and continue to ignore the fact that she's pissed off because her car can't cook a turkey. Like most people, she's blaming a program for her own ignorance in understanding it.

As for the comment about "name" stallions being neccessary... Hoist Bar was a CRAP sire, THAT is why it has to go back to Turn-To.

Malek to Cruella D's nick is run on the Nashua over Turn-To cross and the reason it goes that far back is because the lines from Nashua to Malek and from Turn-To to Shanekite are SO obscure.

Malek's branch doesn't come through the more traditional Nashua lines (of which there aren't that many to begin with, Papa Ricco and Diplomat Way are the only two I'm aware of and even those I think nick on Nashua) and took a detour when Good Manners was sent to Argentina.

Shanekite's branch of Turn-To isn't just obscure, it's OBSOLETE. His sire, Hoist Bar is probably the ONLY son of Hoist Away (by Turn-To) to go to stud and is one of the few purebred thoroughbred decendants from the prominent quarter horse sire Three Bars (being out of a TB daugher of Three Bars named Bimy Bar). Side note ... I was most likely at Mira Loma the year Cruella D was born and if she was born there, I probably have a pic of her somewhere. Shane and I were old buds 8) but I liked Government program and Snow Chief more.

MOST branches of Turn-to don't actually nick ON Turn-To, they nick on the more modern sires like Kris S., Roberto, Hail To Reason, Sir Gaylord, First Landing, etc. Just for the heck of it, I ran Malek to Cellars Shiraz (a granddaughter of Kris S.) and it comes up as a 0SW (no letter grade at all) nick based on Nashua over Roberto. If ANY nick has to go all the way back to Turn-To, you are dealing with some REALLY obscure and quiet branches.

Malek to Cruella D is an F nick with a (-52%) level. Now I don't remember exactly how that percentage is calculated or what it represents (it's a probability of something, but I forget what), but what that means is that there has been SOME stakes success on that cross through the last 50 years, but not a whole hell of a lot. That's bad, but no where near as bad as the Malek to Sunday's Child nick.

Malek to Sunday's Child's nick is run on the Nashua over Damascus cross for pretty much the same reason Malek/Cruella D went all the way back to Turn-To. Prior to Malley Girl winning her stake, it had no letter grade and 0SW.

Basically, you can't get a letter grade without a stakes winner and you can't get the corralative percentage without multiple stakes winners. Once Malley Girl won her stake, the system gives it a grade and then flags it as 1SW instead of giving it a percentage. That 1SW basically tells Jack that there is a nick there, but it only has one stakes winner so he needs to look at it and determine if it's a breeding worth recommending. In this case, it would not be because of the really low grade.

Back to Malek and Nashua. With the fact that there are now two decent sons of Mocito Guapo and a high concentration of Desert Wine mares in California, that F (1SW) nick on Nashua/Damascus has the potential to change in the future if more and more daughters of Desert Wine are covered by Malek or Memo and produce stakes winners. There's every reason to believe it could turn into a D nick based on Mocito Guapo over Damascus in the next 5 years.

I do not see the F nick from Malek/Cruella D changing though because there aren't enough mares from any of the more modern branches of Turn-To in California to make an impact and Malek/Memo are the only sons of Mocito Guapo in this country so they are pretty isolated. Had one or both of them wound up in Florida, there is a high concentration of Kris S. line mares there that they may have eventually formed a Nashua/Roberto nick.

The nicks change the second the broodmare sireline changes.

If Cruella D and Sunday's Child had both come from different branches of Roberto, the nick grade/(percentage) and cross it was based on would have been exactly the same. Since Cruella D and Sunday's Child were by two different sireslines, the nicks and the crosses they were based on were both different.

This may help. Reckless Rose has 5 daughters by 5 different sires. Nicked with Malek, the grades and crosses are as follows:

Malek to Dayla (by Marvin's Policy x Reckless Rose) gives a B (+52%) based on the Good Manners - Raise A Native cross.

Malek to Navarro Rose (by Native Prospector x Reckless Rose) gives a C (+4%) based on the Good Manners - Mr. Prospector cross.

Malek to Cruella D (by Shanekite x Reckless Rose) gives an F (-52%) based on the Nashua - Turn-To cross.

Malek to Sunday's Child (by Desert Wine x Reckless Rose) gives an F (1SW) based on the Nashua - Damascus cross.

Malek to Pirate's Swan Song (by Pirate's Bounty x Reckless Rose) gives a 0SW based on the Nashua - Hoist The Flag cross.

See how the letter grade and percentile changed each time the broodmare sireline did?

The reason Dayla and Navarro Rose were able to produce nicks to Good Manners instead of Nashua is because there was most likely enough Raise A Native and Mr. Prospector daughters exported to Argentina to have been covered by Good Manners and Mocito Guapo, drop stakes winners and form a nick. There probably have not been many mares who tail male to Turn-To or Damascus exported to Argentina so they are more difficult to nick to the Mocito Guapo/Good Manners/Nashua sireline.

As I keep trying to get through to cough Nijinsky, the nick only reflects what's going on sireline to broodmare sireline. She's right, Malek has managed to hit with her female family, and breeding to him might well be a good idea because of that if you are ONLY trying to get a using racehorse.

Since she pulled an actual percentage instead of just the (1SW), there is a modicum of potential on that cross. Who knows, she make even produce a horse that makes the F (-52%) nick move up to an F (+1%) nick. I personally wouldn't do it thinking I was going to get a stakes winner. I'd do it with the hope that I'd get a decent allowance horse. If you think you are going to breed Cruella D to Malek and get a graded stakes winner, you're aspirations are far too high. There's a fine line between dream and delusion.

Me personally, the nick I would watch would be that last one at 0SW. There are an awful lot of GOOD Pirate's Bounty mares in California and I'm sure Malek and Memo are going to see their share of them. I don't anticipate that staying a 0SW for much longer and I don't see it starting at an F grade either. I'm pretty sure that will be at least a D when it finally hits.

Not all (1SW) are classified as F. I've seen C and B (1SW)s, but they generally are based on young stallions from sires who already have a high nick to that broodmare sire (Like Mr. Prospector over Northern Dancer) so there is a high probability of the son also providing a quality nick. Forty Niner for instance. Rock Hard Ten is another. RHT to Manistique is a B (1SW) on the Roberto/Unbridled cross.

In the begining, all of Forty Niner's nicks were based on Mr. Prospector. After he'd been at stud for a few years and producing stakes winners, the sons started going to stud. Within 2 years of the sons at stud and throwing stakes winners in their first crop, the system could see the nicks for Forty Niner forming (because he and his sons were siring more and more stakes winners from the same broodmare sirelines) and ranked him accordingly. I think the initial Forty Niner nicks started at B and went up from there.

There will be the occasional Forty Niner nick that has to go back to Mr. Prospector, but that would be because Forty Niner and his sons haven't seen many of the mares from that broodmare sire/sireline. IOW, you'd get a nick for Forty Niner over Seattle Slew, but if you tried to run him to a Bold Ruckus mare, it would come back as Mr. Prospector over Bold Ruckus.

austique wrote:Now back to Caro and Mr. P and why they seem to be fickle friends :wink:

It's probably nothing more than how the chormosones fall. The part that always amused me is how often one nick can be a failure, but flip it and you score well. I think it really is nothing more than some sirelines work better as Broodmare sire lines. Secretariat continuously nicked low as a sire. I don't think I've seen a nick with him as the broodie sire that wasn't at least a B. It's part of the reason I'm keeping an eye on Risen Star/Tinners Way mares.

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Postby Nijinsky » Wed Feb 01, 2006 8:00 pm

Boy was that a lot of work for nothing Sam....hope it helps someone :?

Studying this mare Cruella D the obvious nick would be Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native....through Dayla, Navarro Rose and Andestine...wouldn't you think? No one needed to pay $1,000 to see that ! That just took me 15 minutes.

I have had 2 out of 4 mares that I did some FREE Werk Nickings on....one Nijinsky line and the other Mr. Prospector....when doing Werk Nicks on both mares I have yet to get better than a C rating on Ca. sires. Even though both female families are proven nicks everywhere to the sire lines I pick....just doesn't make sense and there is nothing you can say to change my mind or any breeders that I know who also think Werk Nicking is BUNK! I do not know ANYONE personally who uses Werk nicking or thinks it has any value to their breeding program. If any of us want to get a "Pedigree Expert" Werk would NOT be our first choice. You can expalin it all you want till you are blue in the face (which obviously you are) and still no one will understand it's usefullness and it's warrenty for spending thousands of dollars!
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Postby Sam » Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:16 pm

Nijinsky wrote:Studying this mare Cruella D the obvious nick would be Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native....through Dayla, Navarro Rose and Andestine...wouldn't you think?
Only if you want to ignore the fact that your mare, Cruella D, stems from one of the major failures in the Turn-To branch while Dayla, Navarro Rose and Andestine all come from the SAME sireline.

You're doing exactly what your are blasting Werk for ... ignoring half the family. You're so focused on the fact the FEMALE family works with a certain sire, that you are IGNORING the fact that the mare's sireline DOES NOT.

The FACT is that Dayla and Navarro Rose are BOTH Raise a Native sireline ... as is Andestine. Dayla is Marvin's Policy/L'Natural/RAN and Navarro Rose/Andestine are both daughters of Native Prospector. So not only is the female family nicking, but so is the sireline. The female family AND sirelines are the SAME for those three mares. They are NOT the same for Cruella D. The only thing Cruella D has in common is the female family. She is from a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT sireline and THAT is why the nick is so much worse for her than it is for Dayla/Navarro Rose/Andestine. That is a FACT that you are conveniently ignoring ... again, you're doing the same thing that you are blasting Werk for... IGNORING half of a mare's pedigree.

Nijinsky wrote:when doing Werk Nicks on both mares I have yet to get better than a C rating on Ca. sires. Even though both female families are proven nicks everywhere to the sire lines I pick....just doesn't make sense

Because you are still STUPIDLY trying to make it tell you something it can't. You keep talking about the fact that Cruella's female family works with the sireline and in your mind that means it should get a better nick than it does. You are still BLINDLY and STUBBORNLY ignoring the fact that you are trying to make something do it can't. YOU don't understand and won't listen to the fact that it ONLY reflects what is happening sire to broodmare sire. YOU want it to tell you what happens Sire to Female family AND IT'S NOT DESIGNED TO DO THAT.

You're trying to cook a turkey in your car and getting pissed off at Ford because it's not working.

You are blaming the system for your own ignorance and you won't listen when other people try to tell you WHY you're not getting the answer you want.

Nijinsky wrote:I do not know ANYONE personally who uses Werk nicking or thinks it has any value to their breeding program.

And I don't know anyone other than you who is touting the nicks as the ONLY thing to base their matings on. In fact, dolts like you confuse the nicks with recommendations. NO ONE 'recommends' a nick that you run yourself. You could go to the Werk site all on your own, run a nick and do with it as you please. Just because YOU run a nick that comes up an A, that does NOT equal a recommendation from Werk and only a fool such as yourself would think it does.
Last edited by Sam on Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:26 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Goldmine Software

Postby hpkingjr » Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:23 pm

I am presently playing on the free edition of G1 Goldmine. The free edition gives the grade 2's and 3's. Using a standard 5 generation pedigree it lists 12 Grade 2 winners and 31 Grade 3 winners with Mr. P and Caro both in the pedigree. I can not give you the grade 1's because I've not paid my $90.00 yet to purchase. Nevertheless it appears that your Mr. P/Caro may have a fair chance of success

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Postby Nijinsky » Wed Feb 01, 2006 10:13 pm

Sam.... :roll: :roll: :roll: You must have nothing but time studing this one mare.

None of that made any sense :? The mare Cruella D and 2 of her half sisters all have the same Dam yet ALL different sires along with the AUNT....the nick (some nice stakes horses including a G1 winner and a G3 Placer) that seems to be working on the SAME dams side including the Aunt is Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native. Doesn't matter who the sire of Creulla D is...now does it? How you came up with Malek instead of a Mr. Prospector son is beyond me?

And I thought you knew all about pedigree's
Last edited by Nijinsky on Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I try not to listen to the voices in my head.

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Postby Nijinsky » Wed Feb 01, 2006 10:28 pm

CRUELLA D and her siblings....Dayla by a RAISE A NATIVE grandson...Navarro Rose....by a MR. PROSPECTOR Son.


Copyright Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc., 2005


RECKLESS ROSE, 1985, The Irish Lord- Here's To Love by Don B..
YRS ST WN PL SH EARNED SR SSI

1991 Cruella D,Dkbbr,f,Shanekite 5 52 13 9 8 70,599 ( 84) 1.12
North America Dirt Sprints 52 13 9 8 70,599 ( 84)
North America Muddy/Sloppy 1 0 0 0 450 ( 70)
DP = 7-5-0-0-0 DI = 0.00 CD = 1.58 AWD = 5.27

1992 DAYLA,Ro,f,Marvin's Policy 4 42 12 12 5 300,510 (102) 4.92
North America Turf Record 13 3 4 3 171,470 (102)
North America Dirt Sprints 19 7 5 2 67,860 ( 86)
North America Dirt Routes 10 2 3 0 61,180 ( 96)
North America Muddy/Sloppy 3 1 1 0 11,900 ( 88)
DP = 10-5-1-0-0 DI = 31.00 CD = 1.56 AWD = 6.96
At 5 Won Lady Morvich Handicap -L (51,950), Novel Sprite Handicap (R) (O)
(39,200), 2nd Los Altos Handicap (O) (38,325), 3rd Hillsborough
Handicap -G3 (100,000), San Leandro Handicap (O) (36,540)
At 6 Won Miss America Handicap -L (100,000), 3rd Lady Morvich Handicap (O)
(41,450)

1993 Sunday's Child,Dkbbr,f,Desert Wine 2 9 1 1 3 25,915 ( 85) 1.66
North America Turf Record 2 0 0 0 0 ( 76)
North America Dirt Sprints 7 1 1 3 25,915 ( 85)
North America Muddy/Sloppy 1 0 0 1 3,000 ( 76)
DP = 12-8-4-0-0 DI = 11.00 CD = 1.33 AWD = 6.00

1994 Reckless Love,Dkbbr,c,Desert Wine 4 34 6 6 1 37,224 ( 84) 0.56
North America Turf Record 1 0 1 0 1,720 ( 75)
North America Dirt Sprints 33 6 5 1 35,504 ( 84)
North America Muddy/Sloppy 2 1 0 0 4,988 ( 78)
DP = 12-8-4-0-0 DI = 11.00 CD = 1.33 AWD = 5.33
1995 Slipped

1996 Reckless Native,Dkbbr,c,Native Prospector Unraced

DP = 14-4-6-0-0 DI = 7.00 CD = 1.33
1997 Navarro Rose,Ch,f,Native Prospector 3 20 3 4 5 153,073 ( 90) 3.13
North America Turf Record 15 1 3 5 98,505 ( 90)
North America Dirt Sprints 3 1 1 0 29,475 ( 86)
North America Dirt Routes 2 1 0 0 25,093 ( 84)
North America Muddy/Sloppy 2 1 1 0 28,125 ( 86)
DP = 14-4-6-0-0 DI = 7.00 CD = 1.33 AWD = 7.50
At 3 2nd Pike Place Dancer Handicap -L (61,800), Floral Fiesta S. -L
(51,300)

1998 Rose Of The Desert,Ch,f,Desert Wine 2 16 3 0 1 22,356 ( 84) 0.51
North America Dirt Sprints 16 3 0 1 22,356 ( 84)
North America Muddy/Sloppy 2 0 0 0 284 ( 56)

DP = 12-8-4-0-0 DI = 11.00 CD = 1.33 AWD = 5.67
1999 Pirate's Swan Song,Dkbbr,f,Pirate's Bounty 1 2 0 0 0 0 ( 54) 0.00
North America Dirt Sprints 2 0 0 0 0 ( 54)
DP = 10-7-6-0-3 DI = 3.33 CD = 0.81
Sold at Hip # Sales Price Sire Avg Rank Stud Fee
BESOCT 2000 0051 $18,000 $9,467 ylg ( 2/ 6) $8,000

2000 Carson Pass,Dkbbr,c,Western Fame Unraced
DP = 11-4-5-0-0 DI = 7.00 CD = 1.30

2002 Melinda Rose,Dk B/,f,Malek (Chi)
DP = 6-3-3-0-0 DI = 7.00 CD = 1.25
SIRE 1.04 Spi, 13str, 8%2yo, 8%1st, 0%Mud/6sts, 0%Tf/2sts, AWD 5.0
DAM(w) 1.98 Dpi, 0 2yostr/0wnr, 23%Mud/13sts, 4 Tfstr/2wnr, 3 Rtestr/2wnr, AWD 6.1

2003 Not Covered Previous Year


CRUELLA D's Dam and her siblings......ANDESTINE is by a MR. PROSPECTOR son. See what is working for this female family....which has nothing to do with who the sire of the mare is duhhh.

Copyright Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc., 2005


HERE'S TO LOVE, 1980, Don B.- Falling Snow by Olympiad King.
YRS ST WN PL SH EARNED SR SSI

1985 Reckless Rose,Dkbbr,f,The Irish Lord 1 6 2 0 0 12,987 1.99
North America Dirt Sprints 6 2 0 0 12,987
DP = 15-4-5-2-0 DI = 4.78 CD = 1.23 AWD = 6.00

1986 Lovecameourway,Ch,f,Rumbo 2 18 2 1 1 1,962 ( 71) 0.11
North America Dirt Sprints 12 1 1 1 1,114 ( 70)
North America Dirt Routes 6 1 0 0 848 ( 71)
DP = 4-0-7-0-3 DI = 1.15 CD = 0.14 AWD = 7.25

1987 A New Refrain,Ch,c,Messenger Of Song 2 2 0 0 0 0 ( 68) 0.00
North America 2 YO Record 1 0 0 0 0
North America Dirt Sprints 2 0 0 0 0 ( 68)
DP = 10-3-4-1-0 DI = 5.00 CD = 1.22
1988 Barren
1989 Barren

1990 ANDESTINE,Dkbbr,f,Native Prospector 2 9 6 0 1 288,275 (104) 25.36
North America Dirt Sprints 5 4 0 0 100,875 ( 99)
North America Dirt Routes 4 2 0 1 187,400 (104)
DP = 10-2-10-0-0 DI = 3.40 CD = 1.00 AWD = 7.25
At 4 Won Milady Handicap -G1 (162,400), Sonoma Handicap (R) (O) (100,000),
Winter Solstice S. (R) (O) (66,175), 3rd Hawthorne Handicap -G2
(102,500)

1991 Gogul Mogul,B,c,Native Prospector 1 4 0 0 0 265 ( 69) 0.04
North America Dirt Sprints 2 0 0 0 65 ( 66)
North America Dirt Routes 2 0 0 0 200 ( 69)
DP = 10-2-10-0-0 DI = 3.40 CD = 1.00

1992 Lady Paoshan,Ch,f,Native Prospector Unraced
DP = 10-2-10-0-0 DI = 3.40 CD = 1.00
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Re: Goldmine Software

Postby llbean » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:09 pm

hpkingjr wrote:I am presently playing on the free edition of G1 Goldmine. The free edition gives the grade 2's and 3's. Using a standard 5 generation pedigree it lists 12 Grade 2 winners and 31 Grade 3 winners with Mr. P and Caro both in the pedigree. I can not give you the grade 1's because I've not paid my $90.00 yet to purchase. Nevertheless it appears that your Mr. P/Caro may have a fair chance of success


Hi hpkingjr,

It's 15 G1Ws with the Mr Prospector / Caro cross (both ways) and the Ventura GeoScore on it is a bland but not bad 1.11.

The more specific cross of Mr Prospector and In Excess has done much better relative to oppurtunity, however, with a nice VGS of 7.16.

(Still, In Excess/Mr Prospector is based on a small sample size.)

-llbean
Last edited by llbean on Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Sam » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:15 pm

Nijinsky wrote:None of that made any sense :?

Only to you and only because you don't WANT it to because if it makes sense, you'd have to admit you had no clue what you are talking about.

Nijinsky wrote:The mare Cruella D and 2 of her half sisters all have the same Dam the nick

Nicks, whether they come from Werk or The Bloodhorse are SIRE TO SIRE based. They are NOT Sire to Female Family based. There is NO ONE that tracks that information and makes the results available to the public for free. That is information that a breeder is responsible for getting, either by digging the information up themselves or hiring a professional to do it for them. I have all the nicks for Kris S. to female families. For the amount of time and money I've spent to get accurate information, if you think I'm going to give that up without being paid for it, you're out of your mind.

Nijinsky wrote:Doesn't matter who the sire of Creulla D is...now does it?

It most certainly does if you wish to understand why Dayla to Malek gets a C and Cruella D to Malek gets an F.

Nijinsky wrote:How you came up with Malek instead of a Mr. Prospector son is beyond me?

Because you asked why the nick for your mare, Cruella D, comes up an F to Malek when other horses in the family came up with Cs or better.

The bottom line here is that it is impossible to help those who are not willing to learn and the only thing you are doing when you continue to harp about how a female family works to a sire but the Werk nick is very low is highlight your ignorance of what the program does.

enicks are Sireline to Broodmare Sireline based. Period. End of Story. It's a concept that everyone BUT YOU seems to understand.

The program is NOT designed to assign nicks based on sireline to female family. If that is what you are trying to get, YOU ARE USING IT WRONG. As Madelyn said, the nicks are a tool, and YOU are trying to use a hammer to make a hole when what you need is a drill.

So go ahead and keep whining that your mare from an obsolete branch of Turn-To gets crappy nicks when other horses from her female family get much better ones. Anyone with half a brain knows how stupid you sound. Anyone with half a brain knows that the nicks are NOT based on female families. Anyone with half a brain knows that you are doing exactly what you are blasting Werk for -- ignoring half of a mare's pedigree.

Tell us again how the Werk nicks don't work because your mare's female family works to Malek, but the nicks on YOUR mare are Fs. Everyone else can understand why that is a stupid statement except you. Everyone else can see that the mares showing a better nick are the ones sired by RAN line sires, while your mare is from an obsolete branch of Turn-To.

I've got a much simpler answer for you that I'm sure you'll understand and can believe. You want to know why Dayla and Navarro Rose got better nicks to Malek thank Cruella D did?

Intelligent Design.

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Postby Nijinsky » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:21 pm

There is NO ONE that tracks that information and makes the results available to the public for free. That is information that a breeder is responsible for getting, either by digging the information up themselves or hiring a professional to do it for them.


Exactly my point Werk doesn't do it, even for $1,000 but Suzanne Cardiff, Ellen Parker and a few others I am sure DO research female and male lines for a small few....heck pay me I'll do it for ya.

So Sam what is the $1,000 getting someone these days for a Jack Werk nick? Like I said I do not know anyone personally who has used him....or even believes in his work.
Last edited by Nijinsky on Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Nijinsky » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:25 pm

Because you asked why the nick for your mare, Cruella D, comes up an F to Malek when other horses in the family came up with Cs or better.


No I didn't, your wacked out mind came up with that one all on your own, this mare and sire. You have NO idea who my mares are too bad you wasted your time :lol:
I try not to listen to the voices in my head.

But sometimes they have such good ideas

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Postby Nijinsky » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:32 pm

The bottom line here is that it is impossible to help those who are not willing to learn and the only thing you are doing when you continue to harp about how a female family works to a sire but the Werk nick is very low is highlight your ignorance of what the program does.


Like I said Sam I do not know one BREEDER who thinks Werk Nicking has any value to their breeding program unless of course he offered it free of charge. Neither Don Engel (just read his well thought out and common sense article on the subject) http://www.thoroughbredinfo.com/nicks.htm or several pedigree experts who use both female and male line data...agree that using 1/4 data to decide if you will get a SW when only 3% of all horses are ever SW's and only 1% graded. Your odds just keep getting lower and lower when you leave out Female Families....Standard Starts Indexes...and Average Earnings Indexes and so on.
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But sometimes they have such good ideas

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Postby Sam » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:39 pm

Nijinsky wrote:
There is NO ONE that tracks that information and makes the results available to the public for free. That is information that a breeder is responsible for getting, either by digging the information up themselves or hiring a professional to do it for them.


Exactly my point Werk doesn't do it for $1,000

Again, showing how little you know.

First off, Werk doesn't charge $1,000 for the mare analysis.

Secondly, Werk DOES look at the female families when they do recommendations. That's why HUMANS make the final recommendations, not computers. Again, if you run a nick on your own and get an A++, NO ONE from Werk is going to call you and say "yeah, that's an A++ nick, but it's not advisable for your mare". The nicks are just nicks. They are NOT recommendations. A distinction you just don't seem to be able to grasp.

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Nijinsky
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Posts: 255
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2005 5:40 pm
Location: California

Postby Nijinsky » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:56 pm

I read on his site the prices and I have heard from others what he charges....not only that I was also informed by certain experts....breeders.....and people on this board, that he indeed DOESN"T look at FEMALE FAMILIES and what has worked for them.

Sorry but I do not see breeders here or anywhere singing his praises. But you....but then again you are more than likely benefiting from his work...which explains your tenacity. :roll:
I try not to listen to the voices in my head.

But sometimes they have such good ideas

Sam
Chef de Race: Intermediate
Posts: 4194
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 12:51 pm

Postby Sam » Thu Feb 02, 2006 12:26 am

Nijinsky wrote:I read on his site the prices

I doubt that. If you had, you would see he charges $395 for the basic Broodmare analysis and $495 for the Deluxe analysis. :arrow: Broodmare book price guide

The only thing Werk charges a grand for (actually, $995) is the Stallion Analysis.

"Once again showing you're wrong don't know what you're talking about. You just hate being wrong, don't you?"

Nijinsky wrote:and I have heard from others what he charges....not only that I was also informed by certain experts....breeders.....and people on this board, that he indeed DOESN"T look at FEMALE FAMILIES and what has worked for them.

And we all know how accurate 2nd and even 3rd hand information can be. Having worked for the company, I can say with 100% conviction you are incorrect so whoever is say so is lying or just doesn't know themselves.

Nijinsky wrote:but then again you are more than likely benefiting from his work

Well that certainly reaches a new level of stupid. Care to explain how I personally am benefiting from his work?